Yes, people in Kashmir valley live on rumours. And in Srinagar, there is a rumour that Omar Abdullah is stuck in both the seats. And the electoral contest on the 47 seats of Kashmir division is between NC-Congress alliance versus the unity of all parties. Meaning, the National Conference candidates are fighting against the unity of those terrorists, those separatists, independents who have got support from BJP. Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP is lagging badly. Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter is also in trouble. Even if PDP gets three-four seats, it will help in forming the BJP government. The important question is about Omar Abdullah’s victory. He is contesting from two seats and is stuck in both the places. Therefore, Omar’s defeat will mean who will then do the horse-trading to form the government in the National Conference? However, experts are saying that Farooq Abdullah will take a decision immediately. There are some trusted old leaders of the family in the party (General Secretary, former Finance Minister etc.), from whom he will put forward someone as the Chief Minister.
A majority of 46 MLAs is required to form a government in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. And if the seats of the National Conference and Congress Alliance remain stuck at 40, then the BJP will stake claim to form the government. By putting forward an experienced NC leader like Devendra Rana, the BJP will cause a rift in the NC as well as in the Congress.
Obviously, the strategy of BJP, Amit Shah, Ram Madhav etc. is aggressive and Omar Abdullah and Rahul Gandhi are lost in their thoughts. Congress’s Kanhaiya is superhit in the valley but Omar and Farooq do not even remember to organize rallies of Rahul and Kanhaiya in their seats. Omar is overconfident.
Certainly, the National Conference-Congress alliance will get more than 90 seats. But the problem is of a hung assembly. In case of a hung assembly, everything will be in the hands of the BJP.
All these are based on rumours. It is my belief that in Kashmir, the strength of NC and Congress is one and one is eleven compared to Rahul Gandhi and Congress. Secondly, BJP has no influence in the 43 seats of Jammu region. It cannot win more than thirty seats. The discord in Jammu BJP, the resentment over the candidates, the talk of animosity between Rajputs and Brahmins in Hindu votes will result in votes being cast on the basis of caste. If the votes fall short in Jammu region, then rest assured that it will be the indifference of BJP’s vote. In the first round of voting, 80 and 70 percent votes were cast in Inderwar and Kishtwar, while the reason was Hindu vs Muslim politics, it was also to ensure maximum votes for the National Conference candidates. NC worked as hard as BJP did to polarise the seat.
The biggest thing is that in Jammu region, the elections seem to be based on local issues, whereas in the valley, there is only one issue and that is to defeat Narendra Modi. That is why there is a discussion among the people that Engineer Rashid has been released from jail. The credibility of Jamaat candidates is decreasing day by day. These candidates will cut votes but it is being spread among the common people that they are agents of BJP. The elections in the valley are based on the slogan that vote in response to oppression. Rashid Engineer, accused of terror funding, is the same person who made headlines in 2015 by organizing a party in Srinagar and feeding beef to the people. Later he went to Tihar jail on the charges of terror funding. Now, his bail from the court just before the elections has created a buzz in the valley that he is the darling of the central government just like Amritpal is in Punjab. No one may believe this, but the faces of new extremist politics in Kashmir valley are Engineer Rashid and the independent candidate of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami. All of them are in collusion with each other. And this thing is slowly spreading in the minds of the people. Voting for these seats is in its last phase and it is quite possible that by then the rumour will spread widely among Kashmiri Muslims that these people are stooges of the Modi government.
Overall, there is suspense. Even though the election is one-sided, it has many ifs and buts.