Israel has started a ground attack on Lebanon. According to analysts, the outcome of this war now depends on this war. 2006 Like Hezbollah did not allow Israel to win, Then the situation will become very unfavorable for Israel. But Israel won, Then it is possible that for the time being its dominance will be re-established in this area. But will that stop the existing war?
The equations in the ongoing war in West Asia changed dramatically in the second fortnight of September. It is undeniable that Israel turned the tables during this period. Till the first fortnight of September, the situation was such that Israel appeared to be surrounded. There was immense anger in the neighborhood due to its ongoing massacre in Gaza. On the other hand, the strategy of war of attrition of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ seemed successful. War of attrition is understood to mean a war in which the strategy of a long war is adopted. During that time small attacks are continued, but there is no open war i.e. all-out war. The objective is to gradually weaken the enemy’s capabilities, so that at a point he surrenders. Often relatively weaker powers adopt this strategy against a stronger opponent.
The strategy of war of attrition proved to be quite successful during the year-long war (the current war began with Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023). During this period, Israel’s economy was badly affected and its morale was badly affected. The reality is that if America had not provided continuous financial and arms support, Israel’s internal structure would have collapsed during this period. In this connection, it is also noteworthy that at present there is unprecedented political division and conflict within Israel. The unpopularity of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is at its peak.
Under these circumstances, it is understandable that Netanyahu became impatient for an all-out war against the ‘axis of resistance’. There is merit in his assessment that only in this way Israel can save its existence and they can save their political existence. But till two weeks ago, all-out war had its own dangers. Lebanon-based Hezbollah has emerged as a strong paramilitary force over the past four decades. In the 2006 war, it held Israel to a draw, which was considered a moral victory for Hezbollah. Now-killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah had managed to turn his group into a major military and political entity in West Asia.
Hezbollah has played a major role in the axis of resistance, which is said to be commanded by Iran. Hamas, Yemen-based Ansarullah (Houthi), Iraq-based Iraqi Resistance Forces, and Syria-based groups supporting President Bashar al-Assad are considered other members of this axis. It is not the case that the units of this axis work in complete coordination, yet there is broad cooperation among them.
So the question is, how did this axis, which looked so impressive, suddenly become weak?
Now some concrete information has come to light in this regard. All the difference was made by the death of the then President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash under mysterious circumstances. Raisi was an uncompromising leader. He was considered a high-class strategist. After his death, in the elections held in Iran, Masoud Pejeshkian, who was liberal and had a soft attitude towards the West (ie America), was elected President. His very approach has proved fatal for the axis of resistance at present.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, who had come to attend Pezeshkian’s swearing-in ceremony, was assassinated by Israeli intelligence agencies in Tehran. Then Iran had announced to take revenge. It is said that Iran’s supreme religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei was also in favor of giving a strong reply to Iran. But in the meantime western countries mediated. Pezeshkian bought into his words. The formula given by the West was that if Iran does not retaliate, then they (ie America) will make a peace agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, under which Israel will give up its intention to attack Lebanon.
Pejeshkian accepted this condition. He avoided retaliation by disobeying Khamenei. He sent a message to Hezbollah that Israel would not attack Lebanon. It is said that Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb played the role of mediator. It is understood that Hezbollah leaders had gathered at one place to discuss the peace formula given by him, when Israeli planes carried out heavy bombardment. Seven top leaders of Hezbollah were killed in this.
Now Pejeshkian himself has said – ‘America and Europe had claimed that if Iran delayed in responding to the killing of Ismail Haniya, there would be a ceasefire in Gaza. But he lied.
Iranian newspaper La Persian has published the news that an Iranian mole gave information about Nasrullah’s exact location and his program to the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. There are speculations about who this informer was. Some social media posts state that the government had created an anti-Mossad agency to eliminate the presence of Mossad in Iran. But the head of this agency turned out to be an agent of Mossad. There is speculation about whether the same agent leaked this information. The presence of every information of Hezbollah with the Iranian agency has been a part of the natural exchange of information.
The news of Iran’s change in stance had become popular even before Nasrallah’s assassination. Lebanon-based Shia cleric Ali al-Husseini had said in a TV interview a few days earlier that Nasrallah should write his will because Iran had “betrayed” him.
Israeli spies already had a presence in Iran. Or should we say it always has been. For this reason Israel was able to kill a Hamas leader in Tehran. Apart from this, within the last one year many terrorist attacks took place inside Iran. But now it is undeniable that the Iranian people electing a leader who is liberal towards the West as their President has proved fatal for the axis of resistance.
The words of Western/American leaders can be trusted only at the cost of one’s own loss. This confidence was expressed by Mikhail Gorbachev, which resulted in the disintegration of a great power like the Soviet Union and later the expansion of NATO to Russia’s doorstep. Relying on them, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements and thought that this would secure the interests of the Russian population present in the Donbass region of Ukraine. After the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a media interview that the Minsk agreements were an excuse to buy time so that Ukraine could prepare to confront Russia. Merkel was the Chancellor at the time of the agreement and she was also a guarantor of the agreement.
China trusted American leaders when America announced the One China Policy in 1979. Then Chinese leaders will not realize that this is just an American strategy. The day their interests collide with China, they will again raise the issue of Taiwan. Iran’s then President Hassan Rouhani himself had faith in him when in 2015 he signed a nuclear deal with the P-5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany). Under this, Iran stopped its nuclear program. Then America’s Obama administration lifted many sanctions on Iran. But just two years later, US President Donald Trump withdrew America from that agreement and again imposed strict sanctions on Iran.
Despite this experience, Pezeshkian trusted the West and paved the way for the weakening of the axis of resistance. This caused a deep dent in Iran’s credibility among the axis of resistance. After this, the only option left for Iran was to take the risk of attacking Israel. According to reports, Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme religious leader there, who was fully aware of the damage caused to his reputation, took command. He ordered Iran’s army to launch a massive missile attack on Israel.
According to Iranian time, Iran started firing missiles around 8 pm on Tuesday night. Some estimates say it fired about 180 missiles, while some estimates put the number as high as 400. Iran used ballistic missiles as well as supersonic missiles during the attacks. Israel has not given any information about the extent of damage caused by these. He has only said that no one died.
But during the attacks it became clear that Israel’s much talked about missile interception system – Iron Dome failed in front of Iranian missiles. There are sufficient grounds to believe that the Iranian attacks caused significant damage to Israel. Since people had already taken shelter in the safety system, there was no loss of life. But many important places were damaged. Iran managed to show the world that it has truly impressive hypersonic and other ballistic missiles.
With these attacks, Iran restored balance to some extent. This broke the impression that the pressure of the axis of resistance on Israel has reduced. Rather, with these attacks, the way Yemen-based Ansarullah (Huthi) and Iraq Resistance Force announced to target Israeli soil, this pressure may increase further in the future.
By the way, Israel has started a ground attack on Lebanon. According to analysts, the outcome of this war now depends on this war. If Hezbollah does not allow Israel to win like in 2006, the situation will become extremely unfavorable for Israel. But if Israel wins, then it is possible that its dominance over this area will be re-established for the time being.
But will that stop the existing war? To get the answer to this question, we will have to delve into the question as to why war hotspots have emerged in different parts of the world on this occasion? The war is ongoing in Ukraine, it has escalated in a different form in West Africa, and the greatest threat looms in the Asia-Pacific. The war in West Asia is no different from this entire environment.
The new circumstances have been created by the decline of America as an economic power and the unprecedented rise of China. Although America’s destructive power in the military field is still without competition, forces challenging it have emerged in different areas. At least China and Russia have emerged as two such big powers. Due to these new circumstances, it has become impossible for America to run the world arbitrarily. But the ruling class there is not ready to accept its new status. As a result, a strategy of heating up war hotspots has been adopted.
In fact, global situations of war have many dimensions. Military fronts are one dimension of that. Economic and monetary sectors are its two other major dimensions. The real challenge to American supremacy has come from China’s economic power and the new equations created around it. BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Eurasian Economic Union can be mentioned in these equations. Apart from these, there is the Belt and Road Initiative, whose scope extends from Africa to Latin America. The emerging axis between Russia and China has added a military dimension to this equation. Therefore, it is not easy to predict what kind of turn this conflict will take in the coming days. Nothing can be said at this time about how long the war will last.