Haryana has changed the situation. After the results of the Lok Sabha elections, it was being said that the assembly elections of four states were a done deal. That means BJP will lose in all four states and Congress led alliance ‘India’ will win. Every political analyst and election strategist was making the claim. Leaders of Congress and other opposition parties also believed the same. The results of the exit polls after the voting in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana were also in line with this sentiment. But the results changed everything. Contrary to all estimates, BJP registered a huge victory in Haryana. Its vote percentage increased by seven percent compared to 2014 and by about four percent compared to 2019 and it won more seats than in 2014. The result in Jammu and Kashmir was not as per BJP’s wish but its vote share and seats both increased.
After these two results, the entire perception about BJP has changed. In Haryana, BJP has shown that it is not necessary that the results come as per popular estimates. Elections can be won by fighting till the last breath and trying all the tricks. For this, there is a need to try both ‘strategic’ and ‘tactical’ measures, which the BJP tried in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. That’s why now the elections of Maharashtra and Jharkhand have completely opened. The way Congress, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar’s party performed in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections, it seemed that the contest in the assembly elections would be one-sided.
Similarly, in Jharkhand too, as BJP’s seats reduced and it lost all the seats reserved for tribals, it also gave the impression that the contest would be very easy for the ruling JMM, Congress and RJD alliance. But by the time the elections were announced, this perception had changed in both the states. Now there is no talk of a one-sided contest anywhere. Even when Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi held a meeting with the leaders of Maharashtra Congress on Monday, 14 October, a day before the announcement of elections, Rahul told only one thing to the leaders of the state that, we will see that Maharashtra does not become Haryana.
Think about this phrase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had uttered a phrase during the Haryana Assembly elections. He had said that Haryana is going to be Madhya Pradesh for Congress. It is noteworthy that Congress was so confident of victory in Madhya Pradesh that instead of contesting the elections, Kamal Nath was preparing to take oath and there BJP won with two-thirds majority. Similarly, instead of contesting elections in Haryana, Bhupendra Singh Hooda was preparing for oath and BJP won the elections with more votes and seats than the previous two elections. Now Rahul Gandhi is worried that Maharashtra might become Haryana. That is, just as Haryana became Madhya Pradesh, similarly Maharashtra can also become Haryana. This concern is not without reason, after the results of Haryana and Jammu Kashmir this concern has become real.
In the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, the party alliance of Congress, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar i.e. Maha Vikas Aghadi got 31 out of 48 seats and the BJP’s alliance Mahayuti was reduced to 17 seats. This is clearly a picture of advantage of Maha Vikas Aghadi. But there is a close contest in vote percentage. The BJP alliance got about 41 percent votes and the Congress alliance got about 44 percent votes. That means there is a difference of three percent votes. In this also, BJP has been successful in maintaining its vote share of around 26 percent. Keep in mind that in the five elections since 2014, whether it fought with Shiv Sena or separately, it got 25 to 27 percent votes every time.
In the first election held after the breakup of Shiv Sena, i.e. 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena contested on 21 seats and won nine seats. He got 16.52 percent votes. On the other hand, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena fought on 15 seats and won on seven. He got 13 percent votes. That means Shinde’s Shiv Sena had a better strike rate. Shiv soldiers did not leave him. It is possible that Shiv Sainiks may have gone with Narendra Modi to make him Prime Minister at the Center and their voting behavior in the Assembly may be different. But at least from the Lok Sabha election data it does not appear that Shinde’s Shiv Sena is very weak. The weak link of Mahayuti is Ajit Pawar’s party.
Apart from the permanent vote percentage, if we look at other aspects, the chances of the contest being interesting have increased due to the measures taken by the Mahayuti government after the Lok Sabha election results. The state government has started giving one and a half thousand rupees every month to women under the Girl Child Scheme. This is a very ambitious scheme, which has proved successful from Karnataka to Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The state government has to spend Rs 46 thousand crore every year on this.
Apart from this, the state government has started Ladla Bhai Yojana, under which 12th pass youth will be given six thousand rupees, diploma holder youth will be given eight thousand rupees and degree holder youth will be given Rs. 10 thousand. In this way, an effort has been made to reach out to two groups, women and youth. Meanwhile, the Central Government has made an effort to help the government employees and the elderly by announcing free treatment of Rs 5 lakh to the elderly above 70 years of age under the Integrated Pension System and Ayushman Bharat Scheme. The state government has made two moves for other backward castes. The first is that it has sent a recommendation to the Central Government that the limit of the creamy layer should be increased from Rs 8 lakh per year to Rs 15 lakh. Second, it has also sent a proposal to include seven castes in the central list of OBCs.
If we talk about the alliance of Maha Vikas Aghadi i.e. Congress, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, with a lead of three percent votes in the Lok Sabha elections, then their position is relatively strong. One reason for this is that the state government could not handle the dispute of Maratha reservation and OBC properly. Manoj Jarange Patil can be harmful for the BJP alliance in Marathwada and Western Maharashtra. The state government also did not handle the Dhangar and tribal issues properly, due to which both the communities are angry. Both farmers and Marathas are angry with BJP since the time of farmers movement and that anger was also visible in the Lok Sabha elections.
Apart from this, the controversy that has arisen due to shifting of big projects from Maharashtra to Gujarat and the way the issue of Maratha identity has flared up is also a challenge for the ruling coalition. Both these things can give electoral advantage to Maha Vikas Aghadi. The third thing which can be beneficial for Mahavikas Aghadi is the feeling of sympathy towards Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.
It is a common belief that BJP played a role in breaking both the parties. This could lead to consolidation of Hindu votes out of sympathy for Uddhav and Maratha votes out of sympathy towards Sharad Pawar. Similarly, because of Congress, there may be consolidation of Muslim votes in favor of Aghadi. However, Uddhav Thackeray’s image as a staunch Hindu leader has been affected by his association with Congress and Sharad Pawar and a campaign is also going on to brand him as pro-Muslim. On top of that, the matter of declaring the Chief Minister’s face is also stuck.
Apart from these, Dalit vote in Maharashtra will be very decisive, efforts have been started to scatter it. Prakash Ambedkar of Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and farmer leader Raju Shetty are together forming a third front. Meanwhile, Mahayuti’s Dalit leader Ramdas Athawale has made a different move by talking about merging his RPI with Prakash Ambedkar’s party.