There is no less joy being celebrated in India than the Republicans supporting Donald Trump are celebrating America’s election results. In India, all the supporters of BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are celebrating Trump’s victory. The enthusiasm with which Prime Minister Modi posted two posts on social media platform X congratulating ‘My Friend Donald Trump’ and then talking to him further increased the happiness of his supporters. It is a different matter that their happiness has no solid basis. If we look objectively and assess the first four years of Trump’s tenure, we will find that his rule is not going to be very good for India.
If his policies on some issues will benefit India, then on many issues his policies will be harmful to India. By raising the issue of atrocities on Hindus in Bangladesh during the election campaign, Trump has won the hearts of Hindus in India more than in America, but Hindus will be the first victims of the policies that Trump will implement after assuming the office of President on January 20, 2025.
Donald Trump promises that he will change the law granting American citizenship on the basis of birth. He is going to take this decision in the first hour after becoming the President. They will implement the policy that no one will get citizenship just by being born in America. For this, it will be necessary that one of the parents is a citizen of America or has a green card. With the implementation of this policy, the hopes of citizenship of 10 lakh people of India will end in one stroke. Needless to say, more than 99 percent of these will be Hindus. Not only this, Trump is also committed to stopping illegal infiltration into America. For this, they will increase the budget for building a wall on the Mexican border. Currently, 10 Indians are being caught every hour trying to enter America illegally, of which five are Gujaratis. Needless to say, almost all of them are Hindus. Under Trump, it will become more difficult to enter America illegally.
Trump’s second decision may be regarding visas. It is noteworthy that at present, whether it is student visa or work visa, Indians are getting the maximum number of American visas. Trump had proposed changing the rules of H-4 visa in his first term. The H4 visa is a dependent visa, which includes the spouse and unmarried children of US H1 visa holders. They get special permission to work in certain sectors in America. They get social security and can open bank accounts. Trump had wanted to end it, but by the time this change was made he was out of power and the Joe Biden administration allowed it to remain.
This allows both husband and wife to work in America. Trump can end it. Another change related to visa can happen regarding student visa. Currently, Science, Technology and Mathematics (STEM) students get a three-year visa extension to learn on the job. Trump will end this facility. The third change related to visa is to tighten the conditions of H One visa. Hindus are going to suffer the most from these three changes.
Apart from the personal losses caused to Indian citizens, especially Hindus, if we talk about the impact of Trump’s policies on the country’s economy, then the picture does not look rosy there either. Even in his first term, Trump has raised questions about the high import duty imposed on American products in India. They will create pressure to reduce import duty in India. If this happens, then the reduction in India’s revenue will be justified, but Indian companies will have a new challenge to compete with the products of American companies. Secondly, they have said that they will impose 200 percent import duty on Chinese products and at least 10 percent import duty on the products of other countries.
Think, if this happens then what chances will be left for the Indian products going to the American market? Third, everyone knows that Trump wants to make America a manufacturing center again. Therefore, they will help American companies and encourage them to set up their factories in America. In such a situation, it will be interesting to see how many American companies come to India and set up their factories, especially in the semi-conductor sector.
If we look at political and strategic matters, there will be even more complexity. A large group of people in India are celebrating the fact that Trump has to somehow control China, hence India has great geopolitical importance for them. They are assuming that they will help India to check and balance China. But they are not thinking that even if Trump does this, what will he want in return? Keep in mind that during Trump’s first term, the Quad i.e. the group of America, India, Japan and Australia was very active. But its importance diminished during the four years of Biden’s rule. Trump would like to activate it again and his attempt will be to pit India against China. But the reality is that India cannot stand against China in any way because India’s economy is completely dependent on imports from China. If India wants to maintain friendship and trade relations with both China and America, then it should not expect much help from Trump.
Same situation will happen in the case of Iran also. India is preparing to make a big investment in Chabahar port but Trump will not like this. He has had a conflict with India once on the issue of Iran. He had stopped India from importing cheap oil from Iran. Earlier, Trump had tried this through diplomatic means, but when India did not stop importing crude oil from Iran, in 2018, Trump sent Nikki Haley, who was the permanent representative of America to the United Nations at that time, to India and imposed sanctions on India. Had threatened to impose. After this threat, Narendra Modi’s government had stopped buying cheap crude oil from Iran. Obviously Trump does not care about India’s financial interests. Be it China or Iran, they will follow their policies and put pressure on India to accept them.
If we talk about the benefits of Trump’s rule to India, then the biggest benefit could be his policies on terrorism. They can take strict action against Khalistan supporters in America as per the policy of no compromise with terrorism. This may make the extradition of other separatists including Gurpatwant Singh Pannu of Sikh for Justice easier. Under this policy, they will also take strict action against Pakistan and stop or reduce its aid. India may also benefit from this. He has been making efforts for the normalization of relations between Arabs and Israel. India may also get some benefit from this effort. Similarly, if they try to normalize America’s relations with Russia, India can also benefit from it. But these are all collateral benefits. There is currently no possibility of any direct and major benefit from Trump’s rule in America.