Barring a few exceptions, by-elections generally do not have any significant impact on the politics of the country or state. Sharad Yadav’s victory in the by-election of Jabalpur Lok Sabha seat or Lovely Anand’s victory in the by-election of Vaishali Lok Sabha seat in Bihar or Shibu Soren’s defeat in the Tamar assembly seat in Jharkhand are some exceptions. The remaining by-elections are usually fought in a routine manner and its decisions are easily forgotten. But this time it is not so. This time, voting was held on 31 assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat of 10 states on Wednesday, 13 November and voting will be held on 14 assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat of four states on 20 November.
The results of these 47 assembly and two Lok Sabha seats will have a big impact on the politics of the country and the respective states. However, their results will not have any impact on the health of the central or concerned state government. Despite this, the results of these elections are important because they will decide the political condition and direction of the respective states. This will also reveal whether the result of the Lok Sabha elections was a coincidence or whether the experiment of ‘India’ block was really successful. Why the Election Commission suddenly postponed the by-elections for nine seats in Uttar Pradesh from November 13 to November 20 will also be known from the results.
There are by-elections in nine seats of Uttar Pradesh – Phulpur, Katehari, Karhal, Sisamau, Majhwan, Ghaziabad Sadar, Khair, Meerapur and Kundarki. Of these, four seats were held by Samajwadi Party, three by BJP and two by BJP’s allies RLD and Nishad Party. In this, the reputation of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is at stake. SP and Congress alliance had defeated BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. After that, Yogi’s chair was in danger. This danger will be averted only if BJP achieves a big victory in the by-elections on nine seats in the state. Yogi Adityanath has been working hard for this since before the announcement of elections.
It seemed that there was something lacking in the hard work, then the Election Commission shifted the by-election of November 13 to November 20. Because the reason given by the Commission for postponing the elections is baseless. The Commission has given the reason for bathing in Ganga and Guru Purnima. But when Prashant Kishore had asked to postpone the by-election in Bihar citing the reason of Chhath being held till November 8, the Commission had rejected it. There is no merit in the argument of the Election Commission. The Commission had not already declared elections for Milkipur, which falls under the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat.
However, the election for nine seats in Uttar Pradesh is a test of Yogi Adityanath’s reputation and his charisma. Before the elections, differences within the party are coming out openly. While the Chief Minister is contesting the elections on the slogan of ‘Katenge to Bantenge’, Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya has an objection to this and is referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan of ‘If we remain one, we will be safe’. Students’ protest is going on in Prayagraj, in which Keshav Maurya, former MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, MLA Devendra Pratap Singh etc. are supporting the students. On the other hand, the alliance of SP and Congress disintegrated. SP is fighting alone on all the nine seats. Akhilesh Yadav has tried his PDA i.e. Backward, Dalit and Minority formula in the Lok Sabha in a more aggressive manner. He has fielded four Muslim, three backward and two Dalit candidates. So, Akhilesh’s PDA and Yogi Adityanath’s ‘Batenge to Katenge’ are to be tested. This time Bahujan Samaj Party is also contesting the by-elections but its leader Mayawati has done her duty by fielding only one candidate. The result of the by-election will further strengthen the perception of BSP being marginalized in state politics.
By-elections for four seats in Bihar were held on 13 November. Of these, three seats – Belaganj, Ramgarh and Tarari belonged to RJD and CPI-ML, while one – Imamganj seat belonged to BJP’s ally Hindustani Awam Morcha i.e. HAM. This time BJP is contesting on two seats, JDU on one and HAM on one seat, while on the other hand RJD is contesting on three seats and ML candidate on one. This is happening for the first time that the elections on these seats are not going to be face-to-face but triangular because election strategist Prashant Kishore has fielded the candidates of his Jan Suraj Party on all four seats.
They are claiming to show the roadmap for 2025 through this by-election. This time both JDU and Prashant Kishor are trying to make a dent in RJD’s Muslim and Yadav votes. So Prashant Kishore has also fielded candidates to break the Luv Kush and upper caste votes of JDU and BJP. So, both the traditional alliances have to prove that the real fight is theirs and Prashant Kishor has not been able to become a force. The results of these four seats will give an idea of the possibilities of next year’s assembly elections. Along with this, it will also be known how the voters of the state take the ongoing discussions regarding the health of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi’s claim for the post of CM.
Voting was held on November 13 in six assembly seats of West Bengal – Sitai, Madarihat, Naihati, Hadoa, Medinipur and Taldangra. Of these, five are in South Bengal and one is Taldangra seat in North Bengal. All six seats belong to Trinamool Congress but BJP has become a party with strong influence in North Bengal. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has put in all her strength in the by-elections of these six seats because this is the first election after the incident of rape and murder of a junior doctor in RG Kar Medical College, Kolkata on August 9. After that incident, there were protests against Mamata government in entire Bengal. Women took to the streets and civil society also opposed Mamata. From Sandeshkhali to Kolkata, their narrative of Maa, Mati and Manush has been badly affected. On the other hand, BJP is also contesting the elections strongly, while the alliance of Congress and Left Front has disintegrated. Both the parties have fielded their candidates in the elections. Their results will show how much people’s perception has changed towards the Mamata Banerjee government.
By-elections will be held on November 20 on four seats of Punjab – Gidderbah, Dera Baba Nanak, Barnala and Chabbewal. There is a test of strength between both the Aam Aadmi Party government and the Congress, but since the Akali Dal has distanced itself from the elections due to Sukhbir Badal being declared a salaryman, the BJP is trying to take advantage of it. Congress is stuck by giving tickets to its two MPs Amarinder Singh Raja Wading’s wife and Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa’s wife, while on the other hand BJP is trying to send a message by winning the seat of Manpreet Badal.
Voting took place on November 13 on seven seats of Rajasthan – Salumber, Chaurasi, Jhunjhunu, Khinvsar, Ramgarh, Dausa and Deoli Uniara seat. Last year, Congress had lost in a close contest in the assembly elections but this year it gave a big blow to BJP by winning 11 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. The results of these seven seats will show whether Congress is able to continue its good performance or not. However, Congress is on the back foot due to the break in alliance with Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and Bharat Adivasi Party. Its leader Sachin Pilot will be tested in this election as by-elections have been held on three seats in his area. The new Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma also has to prove that he is not a dummy Chief Minister. Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh too, BJP’s new Chief Minister Mohan Yadav has to show his capability. Voting took place on Budhni and Vijaypur seats there. Out of this, Budhni is the seat of Shivraj Singh Chauhan.
Voting for Kerala’s Wayanad Lok Sabha seat took place on November 13, while Maharashtra’s Nanded seat will be voted on November 20. The results of both the seats are important. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is contesting elections for the first time in Wayanad. If he wins and reaches the Lok Sabha, it will have a huge impact on the politics of the Congress and will also strengthen its claim for the assembly elections to be held in Kerala in 2026. The contest is tough for Congress on Nanded seat as it is the traditional seat of Ashok Chavan. This time BJP had lost but Ashok Chavan has to prove his usefulness to BJP in the by-elections being held after five months.