The date of Maharashtra Assembly elections is coming closer and the suspense of the results and post-result politics is increasing. Like in the last 30 years, this time too no party in Maharashtra will be in a position to form the government on its own. The experiment of hung assembly or coalition government which started in 1995 with the government of BJP and Shiv Sena is going to continue in future also. BJP, which is contesting maximum 152 seats, has also accepted that it cannot form the government on its own but it will be the largest party. Everyone knows that being the largest party is not a guarantee of forming the government. Last time i.e. in 2019 also, BJP was the largest party and the second largest party got half the seats. Still BJP could not form government.
In Maharashtra, since two alliances of six big parties are contesting the elections, there is suspense about the results. If we look at the Lok Sabha election results, BJP was able to win only nine seats by fighting on 25 seats, whereas Congress won maximum 13 seats by fighting on only 17 seats. That’s why the first suspense is whether BJP will be the largest party by contesting 152 seats or will Congress become the largest party by contesting 104 seats? The performance of Congress’s ally Shiv Sena in the Lok Sabha elections was not very good. She had contested maximum 21 seats in Mahavikas Aghadi but could win only nine seats. This time also she was adamant to contest on maximum seats but in the end she lagged behind Congress. She is contesting on 94 seats. It is believed that the message in the Lok Sabha elections was that Uddhav Thackeray is not going to enter Delhi politics. Therefore, he got some less votes and some votes of Shiv Sainiks also went to Eknath Shinde’s account. But this will not happen in the assembly elections. This means that the performance of Uddhav’s party may improve in the assembly elections.
Sharad Pawar had the best strike rate in the Lok Sabha elections. His party contested on 10 seats and won on eight. This time his party is contesting elections on 87 seats and experts of state politics are predicting the possibility of repeating the performance like Lok Sabha. If Sharad Pawar’s party repeats the Lok Sabha-like performance, then it is certain that his nephew and the real NCP chief Ajit Pawar, recognized by the Election Commission, will face a big blow. Like the Lok Sabha, he can be elected in the assembly elections also. Like Ajit Pawar, the other new player is Eknath Shinde. Although both of them have been in Maharashtra politics for a long time, they are being considered as new players because they are fighting for the first time by forming their own party. Shinde’s Shiv Sena got the support of Shiv Sainiks in the Lok Sabha elections, only then his party won seven seats. But there is doubt whether that kind of support will be received in the assembly elections. However, more or less, 288 seats of Maharashtra will be divided among these six parties and no party is going to come even close to majority. The real suspense is what will be the order of the parties? Who will be the first, second and third party?