The decision of one country, one election is not going to be taken immediately. No one is claiming with certainty that the bill will come in the winter session this year. Even if the bill comes, it is believed that it will be sent to the Joint Parliamentary Committee. Overall, the situation is that the government has tried to see how many waves arise by throwing a stone in still water. That is, it has made this move to assess the strength of the opposition. The recommendations of the committee headed by former President Ramnath Kovind, which were accepted by the government, were submitted to the President by the Kovind Committee in March itself. The government took more than six months to approve it. The bill has not been prepared on the basis of that recommendation and it has not been said when the government will present the bill. A stir has been created by just accepting the recommendation.
In fact, to implement this idea, many amendments will have to be made in the Constitution, some of which will have to be approved by the Legislative Assembly of half the states of the country and passed by a two-thirds majority in both the houses of Parliament. But the government does not have such a majority in the Parliament. It has a simple majority in the Lok Sabha and it can get a simple majority in the Rajya Sabha by making arrangements. It will not get a two-thirds majority without coming together with many big opposition parties. This means that unless there is a consensus with the opposition in the current Lok Sabha, it cannot be passed. That is why after the cabinet decision, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnav talked about building a consensus with all the parties.
However, the current calculation of numbers in the Parliament is not in favour of the government. The government has 293 MPs in the Lok Sabha. But out of these, parties with 22 MPs had opposed the idea of one country, one election in front of the Ramnath Kovind Committee or remained neutral. That is, there are only 271 MPs from the government side who supported this idea. Even then, if we assume that the number of the government is 293, then also it is much less than the two-third majority. For a two-third majority, the government needs the support of 362 MPs. That is, the government should either make arrangements for 69 MPs or make arrangements that all its MPs are present at the time of voting and 103 opposition MPs remain absent. If only 439 MPs are present in the Lok Sabha at the time of voting, then the government will be able to get the amendment done with a majority of 293.
Similarly, the position of BJP and NDA is not very good in Rajya Sabha. It has 115 MPs excluding nominated MPs. At present, the capacity of Rajya Sabha is 234 MPs. In this respect, the government is two short of majority. If all the seats of nominated category are filled and four MPs from Jammu and Kashmir also come, then the majority figure will be 122. But the government needs 164 MPs for constitutional amendment. The opposition currently has 85 MPs. The government will either have to complete the number of 164 or half of the opposition members will have to be absent. This does not seem possible. Only then one country, one election is still a distant dream.