We are in an era of populism where everything is about emotions. Those emotions created by race, religion and faces keep changing the mood till the last moment. Now the old concepts and mathematics no longer hold true. A black man is voting for Trump and the Republican Party in exactly the same way, Like a Dalit votes for BJP and Modi.
The competition was close and tough. Everyone was telling and agreeing. But the results are not like that. Donald J. Trump’s victory is not only thrilling but also a clear majority. He is becoming the 47th President of America with the majority of the Parliament and Senate.
Obviously the election results are going to shock and surprise many people. Actually it is not so. Trump was a defeated pawn in this election, he was a poor fellow. He was surrounded by cases, had been declared guilty in many cases, his critics were constantly criticizing him, the intelligentsia were making fun of him and because of his actions on January 6, he looked scary. Overall, his image at the beginning of the match was that of a villain.
Whereas Kamala Harris, who entered the contest after Biden left the field, was at the center of publicity, discussions, noise and uproar. Compared to both Trump and Biden, the young and dynamic Kamala Hares had her own narrative that brought tears to the eyes of naïve believers like you and me and made them feel proud. It was as if she was a modern Sita, who was ready to fight Ravana and stood strong. He had everything that could have given him a place on the front page of newspapers. Referendums were also flowing in this stream. His attention was towards publicity. He was feeling a change in mood. He was again seeing enthusiasm rising, especially among Democrats.
But everyone ignored the undercurrent. In all the referendums, Harris started being declared ahead and others also started accepting him as right.
This is what is lacking in election surveys and opinion polls. They assume that the party in which they see more publicity in any state has people in favor of it and then apply this belief to other states as well. We saw in India that the surveyors and exit pollsters were proved wrong to such an extent that they became a laughing stock. This is what has been seen in America. Instead of taking the pulse of the public everywhere, they painted the entire country in one color – and in America, that color was Kamala Harris.
As the election date approached, polls started showing Kamala Harris decisively ahead, while Trump was seen as frustrated and tired. There were claims that Trump was nervous and anxious during the election debates with Harris. The glamor of his rallies pales in comparison to Harris’s rallies. But in reality Trump was touching the hearts of the voters. In his 900 rallies, he spoke harshly on immigration, the economy and foreign affairs. Voters were affected. If this had not happened, Trump would not have become the first Republican to win in Florida’s Miami-Dade County since 1988. The county has an overwhelming majority of Hispanics. One reason for this could also be that the new infiltrators are not pleasing the old immigrants.
Imagine that you are a second generation American Indian. You fought hard to get employment and a good life in America. Ultimately achieved success on the strength of his ability. Now Syrians, Afghans, Palestinians and people from other countries are reaching America illegally and are making a place in American society because of their sad stories. You face competition to get a job and get your child into university. While they are getting jobs not on the basis of merit but on the basis of humanity, their children are getting admissions. Who would you choose – the white man who says things you like or the black woman who bemoans the struggles of her immigrant parents?
It is clear from the election results which of the two options the voters chose.
Harris appealed to a generation of voters who grew up as Americans, but failed to win over those who came to America with their parents. The result is that Trump won a landslide victory. He got much more support from voters in both urban and rural areas than the 2020 election fought against Joe Biden. He was successful in gaining more support than ever before from non-white communities, including Latin American and black men. And surprisingly so are Hispanics. The most disappointing result for Kamala Harris was in Texas, where Hispanics dominate. There is a strong possibility that the total number of votes received by Trump will also be more than Harris. Furthermore, the assumption that women would vote en masse to elect the first female President also proved wrong.
In the coming days, a lot will be written on the issue of why Kamala lost? Newspapers will say that Joe Biden was too late to announce his candidacy, podcasts will say that the Democrats have lost their appeal. But we have to admit that America is still not ready for a woman President. The dream of a black woman becoming president, especially the people of white America, do not want to come true.
Now, as the election year is coming to an end, pollsters and forecasters should go on a long leave and introspect. We are in an era of populism where everything is about emotions. Those emotions created by race, religion and faces keep changing the mood till the last moment. Now old concepts and mathematics do not hold true. A black man is voting for Trump and the Republican Party in the same way as a Dalit is voting for BJP and Modi.
As far as democracy is concerned, it is probably in danger but it is pretended that it is not so. As we saw in India and now in America, majorities can be achieved despite intense polarization. As long as people like Trump and Modi keep their finger on the pulse of the public, and continue to play on emotions and words to woo the public, victory will remain a dream for Kamala Harris and Rahul Gandhi. Populist politics is prevalent from East to West. And this is the ultimate truth of this time. (Copy: Amrish Hardenia)