If non-BJP parties want to remain relevant, So the current comfort zone Coming out of this, they will have to show the talent to understand and define politics afresh. At present, Imaginary “Jan Nayak” Expecting the above from a party or parties that are bound by the situation and are adopting the easy path of moving forward by finding artificial excuses for defeat seems like asking more than their capacity. Anyway, The question here is not about the one asking. Rather, it is about the existence of these parties themselves.
Have the election results of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir dashed the hopes raised on June 4, 2024? When the results of the Lok Sabha elections came on June 4, they indicated that finally a large section of the Indian voters have now come out of the stifling politics of communal or caste identity and have started giving political decisions on the basic questions of livelihood. . At that time, Bharatiya Janata Party’s strategy of giving overdose of Hindutva was seen giving adverse results in many states. Haryana was also included in those states, where BJP’s votes and seats also decreased compared to 2019. Although in terms of voting percentage, Congress was still two percent behind BJP with 44 percent votes, but it won equal number of seats as BJP i.e. five.
The same indication was also given by some by-election results held after the Lok Sabha elections. Therefore, on October 8 (the day the results of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections were declared), all eyes were on whether the above signs would now be seen becoming a trend? But this did not happen. These election results have again focused the political narrative on communal and caste mobilization. The election results of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir valley are rightly being interpreted in the terminology related to these mobilizations. If these mobilizations are (or will be) decisive in the elections, then it can be said that at present there is no break for BJP in this politics.
BJP has returned to power in Haryana with more seats and vote percentage than in 2019. In this way, he has made a record of forming the government in this state for the third consecutive time. Among the reasons considered for his victory, the better strategy of caste equation is the most prominent. For example,
BJP was successful in mobilizing non-Jat against the Jat community.
The move he made by making a relatively less known leader of the OBC Saini community the Chief Minister was effective.
It succeeded in reminding a large section of the OBC and Dalit castes of their old social animosity towards the Jats.
By expressing her intention to implement the recent decision of the Supreme Court on classification within Dalit castes, she succeeded in bringing Dalit castes like Balmiki, Dhanak, Mazhabi Sikh, Khatik etc. in her favor.
Congress placed all its bets on the Jat community, which proved harmful. It even lost many Jat dominated seats due to non-Jat polarisation.
Congress did make promises like caste census and increasing the reservation limit, but it lagged behind in giving representation to various OBC and Dalit castes within the organization and in ticket distribution.
It must be kept in mind that the majority in the state belongs to non-Jat castes. In the current phase of its rise, BJP has always built its strategy around these castes. In such a situation, it could be defeated only if the discussion moved away from the caste equation. But no one tried it.
Congress has also, in recent years, almost completely immersed itself in the caste discussion. Caste census remains the main issue of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. But Congress does not have the capacity or will like BJP to formulate a strategy on the ground according to this discussion. As a result, whenever this polarization is decisive in electoral politics, the Congress loses.
If we look at the election results of Jammu and Kashmir, identity-based polarization seems to have proved decisive there too. Apart from communal and caste, there are also indications of mobilization on regional basis. As a result, a unilateral mandate in favor of the National Conference emerged in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley. Being in alliance with him, Congress also took advantage of its trend. But where the responsibility of taking on BJP was on the shoulders of Congress, it got badly defeated. BJP’s coin prevailed in Hindu dominated districts of Jammu. After the abolition of Article 370, it also got the benefit of giving reservation to Scheduled Castes in the new system. He won all the seats reserved for these castes. But the seats reserved for tribals went unilaterally in favor of the National Conference-Congress alliance. Here this aspect should be kept in mind that most of the tribes in Jammu and Kashmir are followers of Islam.
It was widely discussed that the removal of Section 35-A has caused huge loss to the traders of Jammu. Apart from this, problems like inflation and unemployment are common there like everywhere else. On this basis, it was also estimated that BJP would face difficulty in this election. But during the election campaign, BJP was successful in focusing the discussion on communal, regional and caste issues. Apart from this, Hindu voters, especially in Jammu region, also expressed their support for the abolition of Article 370. As a result, BJP was successful in increasing its votes and seats in this area.
On the other hand, not only was there no mention of BJP in the Kashmir Valley, the regional parties which were believed to be internal allies of BJP were also wiped out. One explanation for this result is that the people of the valley have rejected the decision to abolish Article 370. They have actually expressed their regional identity through the National Conference. This regional division in the mandate has emerged as a new challenge for this union territory.
Perhaps the common aspect of the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir election results is that questions of livelihood did not influence the political decision of a large section of voters. If this assessment is correct, then the question will arise whether there was haste in accepting the signal on June 4? Or did people like this columnist receive the wrong message that day – that is, did not even then the questions of livelihood actually prove to be decisive?
At present, there is confusion over these questions. It is possible that it is too early to say that October 8th has negated June 4th, yet after the latest election results, very few people will have the self-confidence to say that the environment created by inflation, unemployment, general lack of opportunity etc. The anger or dissatisfaction arising from these has now started having an impact on electoral politics. When the election results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand come next month, it is possible that the latest confusion will be cleared to some extent.
At present, things have gone back to where they were before the Lok Sabha elections. One of the main reasons for this is that political parties feel a kind of comfort in the environment created by identity politics. This is in line with his own aristocratic character. This is convenient politics. Probably the political parties are aware of the fact that the ruling class has encouraged the politics of awakening, expressing identities and finding justice within them in order to put the fundamental issues of livelihood and development in the background.
In the strategy of mobilizing voters around one identity, one does not bother to present any plan or program to solve the basic problems. But the more important aspect is that in this politics there is no possibility of conflict with international and domestic capital and the ruling class.
But the risk for non-BJP parties is that the BJP/RSS has so mastered the politics of identity and representation that it often outmaneuvers its rivals in elections. It has currently adopted a strong strategy by combining communal polarization with ethnic identity and representation. Communal polarization provides the ‘core vote bank’ to the BJP, while the politics of caste identity and representation adds plus votes to it. The BJP compensates for this deficiency by promising ‘Revdis’.
Whatever ‘core vote bank’ that other parties have, advocates of caste representation, remains on the basis of caste. They gather some more votes with the promise of ‘Revdis’, but they do not have the tool of communal polarisation. Congress no longer even has a caste based ‘core vote bank’. She has been newly initiated into the politics of caste mobilization, but till now this initiation has not proved to be sufficient.
Meanwhile, the atmosphere in favor of Congress and other non-BJP parties has been created only when they adopted the strategy of organizing the dissatisfaction of the voters against the BJP on the common questions of livelihood and development. But due to the limitations of their class character and thinking, they have failed to present any alternative economic policy and programme, hence they have not been able to create any credible narrative.
The common message of June 4 and October 8 is that without gaining such credibility, it is very difficult for other parties to oust the BJP from the political space it has occupied. BJP tries to garner plus votes through phrases like ‘Acche Din’, ‘Developed India’ and baseless, vague promises like sending Rs 15 lakh to the bank account, but despite losing credibility on these issues, it is now becoming successful in the elections. .
In this situation, it is for parties like Congress to decide whether they are satisfied with remaining a weak opposition following the current strategy or do they still have the ambition to return to central power? If the ambition is big, then they will have to show courage to confront the monopoly-corporate capital and take their politics to a new level. Because BJP is now the main political tool of these classes. Whether these sections feel the need for an alternative tool, this does not seem to be happening in the near future.
Therefore, if non-BJP parties want to remain relevant, they will have to move out of the current comfort zone and show the talent to understand and define politics afresh. At present, expecting the above from a party or parties that are bound by the imaginary “people’s hero” phenomenon and are taking the easy way out by finding artificial excuses for defeat seems like asking more than they can handle. However, the question here is not about the person asking, but about the existence of these parties themselves.
Haryana and Jammu region have given a shock to these parties. This should break their addiction. They should take the latest results seriously. They will get nowhere by trying to cover up their weaknesses and shortcomings. The strategy of moving ahead by blaming the defeat on the Election Commission or EVMs will itself be harmful for them. Anyway, it is doubtful whether Congress has the capacity to take this issue to the public and launch a mass campaign on the ground to ensure free and fair elections.