The world should gear up for the times of change. Donald Trump has been elected President of America and he is determined to act with the arrogance of “I will change the whole house” as soon as he becomes the new tenant of the White House.
They will anger many, create chaos, and perhaps allow Israel and Russia to do whatever they want. Europe will be very troubled. The far right wing in the world will be emboldened. There will be a change in the world’s balance of power. Trump brand economy will return. International relations will become more based on give and take than before. The climate situation will worsen. Trump has already made it clear that he will take America out of climate change related agreements. They will increase the use of petroleum and coal. This will dash hopes of keeping the world’s temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Trump loves power immensely. Obviously such a person likes flatterers. It is difficult to predict when and what decision he will take. This time they will have control over the Senate and there is a good possibility that they will also have control over the House of Representatives. The Supreme Court will allow them to do whatever they want. Once he becomes supreme, trust will be established once again. They will pander to the baser tendencies of the voters. The number of ‘sensible’ people who can stop them will be very less.
The event organized to celebrate his victory had the look of a court, not a cabinet. Elon Musk seemed to be an industrialist with tremendous political influence. It is expected that his supporters will implement their respective plans. America will no longer be the godfather and essential and trusted country of the free world. In fact, in the next four years it is possible that he may become everyone’s rival.
However, all this is just a prediction of what is to come because Trump has never clearly explained his plans and ideas related to foreign policy. How they will intervene around the world is debatable. Different groups in his own party hold different views. Some favor restraint and want minimal US intervention. Some people insist that America should remain the emperor of the entire world.
But due to Trump’s unstable opinions and his arrogance, chaos is inevitable. Trump takes pride in the fact that his image is that of a powerful man. There was no war during his four-year tenure. But due to their wavering attitude many new wars may start, instability and anarchy may arise. This is most likely in the context of Iran. If Iran attempts to become a nuclear weapons power, it can expect a strong response from the United States. Trump can attack Iran with the help of Israel even before it takes such a decision. Now that Biden – who made every effort to avoid war with Iran – is about to leave office, Iran looks quite weak. Tehran will have to face a US president whom it is accused of attempting to assassinate and who even four years ago – when Iran was more powerful than it is now – had made it clear that he had little interest in war with Iran. There is no fear either.
Meanwhile, in other parts of the world, leaders with populist attitudes will start reviving. Liberal democracies will be under siege and bullies will dominate. Countries will be more able to bully their neighbors economically and militarily, regardless of the consequences. Due to not expecting help from America, the possibility of these neighboring countries compromising or bowing down will increase.
Trump told The Wall Street Journal editorial board in October that he would not have to threaten China with the use of military force over Taiwan because “Xi Jin Ping respects me and knows I’m crazy.” .
Similarly, he claims that he told Russian President Putin, “Vladimir, if you target Ukraine, I will attack you with such force that you cannot even imagine. I will attack the central area of Moscow”.
The current Biden administration is leaving many global crises unresolved – and some continuing at full speed. Therefore, it will be interesting to see which individuals Trump appoints to important national security positions. But one thing is certain, one thing that will remain unchanged as he becomes the 45th President and now the 47th President, and that is that his role as President will be important in his activities, not his advisors. And their foreign policy will be that the country which wants security should pay extortion tax to America.
Welcome back to the world of 2016. You may not feel that the times ahead will be much different from 2016, except that they will be more turbulent and worse than before. Today’s risks will become tomorrow’s deadly risks. (Copy: Amrish Hardenia)