Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement that India, China and Brazil can play the role of mediators for peace in Ukraine has made headlines around the world. There has been speculation in the Western media that Putin is probably tired of the war and is looking for a way out of it. Should Putin’s offer really be understood in this way?
However, to understand the meaning of this statement or Putin’s offer, it would be appropriate to look at the context in which Putin made the above important statement.
First, let us look at Putin’s words, which he said during a panel discussion at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) conference in the Russian city of Vladivostok. Putin said, ‘If there is a desire for dialogue in Ukraine, I am ready for it. We respect our friends and partners – especially China, Brazil and India, who, in my opinion, are serious about resolving all issues related to this conflict.’
After Putin said this, Kremlin (Russian President’s Office) spokesman Dmitry Peskov, while talking to Russian newspaper Izvestia, talked about the possible role of India which Russia expects. He said that India can be helpful in starting talks with Ukraine. Referring to the ‘very constructive, rather friendly relationship’ between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Putin, he said that the Indian Prime Minister is in a position to get direct information from both the sides involved in the fight. He is in a position to have ‘free dialogue’ with Putin, Zelensky (President of Ukraine) and America. But Peskov immediately clarified that India does not have any ‘specific plan’ to mediate on this issue.
In this context, it is noteworthy that China and Brazil have presented separate peace plans to end the Ukraine war. Then both of them had also expressed their desire for a joint initiative. China has prepared a 12-point peace plan under the ambit of its Global Security Initiative. The central point of this initiative is that the security of the world is indivisible – that is, different countries should not define security according to their interests. Security of all can be ensured only when all countries get out of the thinking of one’s benefit and loss for the other (zero sum game).
China presented a 12-point plan in February 2023. Along with this, it also appointed a peace envoy. But these initiatives have not progressed anywhere. Some special aspects of the Chinese plan are:
– Respect for sovereignty: the independence and territorial integrity of all countries are guaranteed
– Direct talks begin between Russia and Ukraine
– Ensuring the safety of all nuclear plants
– Prohibition of the use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons
– and, the end of all unilateral sanctions (imposed on Russia)
Brazil presented its peace plan in May this year. Its highlights are:
– Establishment of a group of countries to mediate for peace talks. China, India and Indonesia can be included in this group.
– Ensuring that the war does not escalate
– Russia and Ukraine should hold direct talks and also hold an international peace conference.
– Both countries should promise not to attack nuclear plants.
In May this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Brazil’s President’s Chief Advisor Celso Amorim met in Beijing. After this, a six-point joint peace plan was presented by Brazil and China. It mainly contains the essence of the peace plans presented separately by both the countries. (https://www.gov.br/planalto/en/latest-news/2024/05/brazil-and-china-present-joint-proposal-for-peace-negotiations-with-the-participation-of-russia-and-ukraine)
This month, South Africa has announced its full support to the six-point joint peace plan of China and Brazil. (South Africa supports China and Brazil’s peace plan to end war in Ukraine (msn.com)) In this connection, we have mentioned South Africa because it is also a member of the BRICS group. Mentioning BRICS is important here because the three countries whose mediation Putin has said to take seriously are the founding members of BRICS. BRICS in its original form was BRIC. South Africa joined it later, then it became BRICS. After five new members joined it in January this year, this forum is known as BRICS Plus.
It is important that Putin has viewed any possible peace initiative within the framework of BRICS. In this way, he has made it clear that he sees a central role for BRICS in resolving this dispute. In Putin’s worldview, BRICS has become perhaps the most important forum in the world. By linking forums like EEF and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to the larger framework of BRICS, establishing a new world order parallel to the US and NATO-centric world structure has now become Putin’s declared objective. For this purpose, since he has made such a ‘friendship’ with China, which ‘has no limits’, he also considers forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, in which China plays a central role, as an important part of this initiative.
Putin knows that there is no solution to the Ukraine war in the near future. This is because policy decisions related to Ukraine are no longer located in Kiev (the capital of Ukraine). These decisions are taken directly in Washington. A clear example of this is the Turkish-initiated peace talks in Istanbul two months after the war began in 2022 (The Sticking Points That Kept Russia and Ukraine Apart – The New York Times (nytimes.com)), in which the terms for ending the fighting were agreed upon. But then at the instigation of the US, then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kiev and after that Ukraine reneged on the agreement. (U.S. repeatedly blocked Ukraine peace deals; is it rethinking its strategy yet? – People’s World (peoplesworld.org))
As for the peace proposals of China and Brazil, the US has already rejected them. Expressing doubts over the possibility of China being an impartial mediator, it has repeatedly said that it will continue to support Ukraine until the last moment. (Putin’s Mediation Proposal: Can China, Brazil, And India Navigate The Ukraine Crisis? – Analysis – Eurasia Review). US President Joe Biden has said that NATO will continue to support “until the last Ukrainian” (i.e. until even a single Ukrainian is alive).
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has passed a law in his parliament, according to which talking to Vladimir Putin’s administration is a crime. Anyway, Zelensky’s connections are in Washington and Russia has already burnt its hands once by talking to him in Istanbul. Meanwhile, when Ukraine recently attacked the Russian region of Kursk, Russia has declared that now there is no possibility of talking to Ukraine.
Against this background, it can be said that Putin’s confidence in the mediation of India, China and Brazil is merely a gamble. This has not given rise to any new possibility of ending the Ukraine war or establishing peace.
In the near future, such a possibility can arise only in one situation, if Donald Trump wins the presidential election to be held in the US in November. Trump has announced that he will stop this war before entering the White House (i.e. 21 January 2025). His words have been taken seriously because Trump represents that section of the American ruling class, which believes that the Biden administration has pushed Russia closer to China through its strategic mistake.
In the opinion of this group, it is in America’s interest to maintain distance between Russia and China. The understanding is that the fundamental threat to America is not Russia, but China. However, the Biden administration has also said in its security policy document that China is the only country that has the will and capability to break America’s dominance over the world. In such a situation, this group considers the formation of an axis between Russia and China to be against American interests.
By first pushing Russia towards war and then imposing the harshest sanctions on it, the Biden administration has caused a great loss to the US in that it has paved the way for a dollar-free international trade system to take concrete shape. The practice of trading in mutual currency between different countries has become a strong phenomenon today.
It is likely that during the BRICS summit in Kazan, a system based on blockchain technology for international payments in mutual currencies will be launched. This potential system will work as an alternative to the dollar-based payment system SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications). If this system proves to be effective, it will be considered a strong blow to the dominance of the dollar. The dominance of the dollar has been the strongest pillar of American dominance over the world. Its weakening will have a very negative impact on the American economy.
Since the start of the Ukraine war, the Putin administration has been looking for an alternative to the dollar. Initially, there was a thought of issuing BRICS’ own currency. But after finding it unfeasible, efforts were made to start a system through which different countries could make payments in their own currencies.
So the overall story is that Putin is working with China to create an axis that can free the countries of the Global South from the dominance of the West. In this effort, he has given BRICS a central role. It is true that in the last two years, Russia has shown more enthusiasm for the expansion of BRICS than the other member countries. After adding five new member countries last year, Putin wants to add many new members this time. Whether this will happen or not depends a lot on the stance of India (and China). Decisions in BRICS are taken by consensus, so no single country is in a position to stop any decision.
What Putin said in Vladivostok should be seen in this larger context. He probably knows that the Ukraine war is not going to end in the near future. But he does not want to disappoint his BRICS partner countries – India, China and Brazil – by saying this bluntly. That is why he has supported the peace efforts of these countries. However, perhaps those countries also know that their initiatives and efforts are just a goodwill at the moment – they are not going to change the ground situation.