At present, There are clear indications that the wind is in Donald Trump’s favor. Trump has been successful in instilling enthusiasm in his supporter groups, Whereas a large part of swing voters is also seen getting attracted towards him. The situation is opposite with the Democrats. Many groups of his traditional supporters are in a mood to punish the party this time. So what are the issues? Who seem to be working in favor of Trump or who seem to be going in favor of Harris?
On the surface, it may seem that the race in the US presidential election is tough, in which the Democratic Party candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, has a slight lead. Such an assumption is based on the estimates of possible percentage at the national level in pre-election opinion polls. But in America, votes polled at the national level matter little. Two facts should be kept in mind:
– In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton got about 27 lakh more votes than Republican Donald Trump. But President Trump was elected.
– Before this, in 2000, Democrat L. Gore was defeated by Republican George W. Received approximately five lakh votes more than Bush Jr. But Bush became President.
– Such discrepancy has been seen on some occasions before in the 248-year history of America.
This discrepancy becomes possible because of the election system there. On the day there is voting, voters do not vote directly to elect the President, but to elect members of an electoral college. 538 such members are elected. Each state elects as many members as the total number of members from that state combined for the House of Representatives and the Senate. Of these two houses of the US Parliament, each state elects members for the House in proportion to its population, while each state elects two members for the Senate.
This time the Electoral College meeting will be held on December 17, in which the members of the electoral college will select the President. Since these members are elected on party basis, with the counting of votes it is decided who will be elected in the electoral college meeting. To win the presidential election, it is necessary that the Democratic or Republican Party succeeds in getting at least 270 of its electors elected.
Politics in America has become so polarized that political trends in most states have become almost stable. There are only a few states among them, which keep changing sides. These are called battle grounds, or toss up or swing states. This time there are seven such states and the general understanding is that who will become the President will be determined by the election results of these states.
According to opinion polls, the trend of these states has become quite clear by now. (Like every country, opinion polls in America too are wrong. They were completely wrong in 2016. If analyzed closely, they will be considered a failure in 2020 too. Therefore, it is possible that the picture which is clearly visible at the moment, He may be proven wrong on November 5, that is, on voting day.) At present, there are clear indications that the wind is in Donald Trump’s favor. Trump has been successful in instilling enthusiasm among his supporter groups, while a large section of swing voters has also been seen getting attracted towards him. The situation is opposite with the Democrats. Many groups of his traditional supporters are in a mood to punish the party this time.
So what are the issues that seem to be working in favor of Trump or which seem to be going in favor of Harris? Let us take an assessment of these:
harris power
The most prominent issue that went in favor of Kamala Harris is the right to abortion. Women got this legal right by a decision of the Supreme Court in 1973. But in 2022, the Supreme Court overturned the 1973 decision. Now Harris is contesting the elections with the promise of giving those rights back to women. There are many indications that he has got great support from women on this issue. It is estimated that he will become the first choice of women in voting also.
The second issue that went in his favor is ‘Trump phobia’. The Democratic Party and its supporting media have been running a campaign to present Donald Trump as a threat to democracy, anti-science and a person who divides the country. There are indications that it has had an impact. Especially educated voters may vote for Harris only because they see Trump as a threat to the country. ‘Trump phobia’ proved to be an effective issue in the 2022 parliamentary and provincial elections.
benefit to trump
On the other hand, among the issues on which Trump has created an environment in his favor, the most prominent is the economy. The Joe Biden administration has been claiming its success on the basis of upper figures of the economy. Harris is beating the drum for this. But the reality is that due to inflation, widespread trend of underemployment, burden on common people due to high interest rates, etc., the life of majority of the population has become difficult. Such people want to forget the record of the Trump era and get rid of the Democrats for the time being.
Trump has made illegal immigration an emotional issue in this election. They seem to have succeeded in misleading many people who have been hurt by the long-standing economic policies of both parties by saying that the root of the problem is illegal immigrants, who have received the protection of the Biden-Harris administration. He has alleged that such immigrants are involved in crime on a large scale, while the Democrats are conspiring through them to change the political situation of the country in their favor.
It is ironical that Trump has succeeded to a great extent in presenting himself as a “peace candidate” in this election. Attention has been paid to his claim that had he been president, the Ukraine and Israeli-Palestinian wars would not have occurred. He also often claims to stop these wars immediately if he becomes President again. He warned that if “war-monger” Harris won, World War III was inevitable. People have found substance in their statement that the Biden administration is a “war maniac” and because of it the threat of a third world war is looming. (Why Foreign Policy is the Biggest Issue This November)
It is also ironical that in the state of Michigan (which is a very important battle ground state) a large organization of the Muslim community has openly announced its support for Trump.
(https://x.com/SanaSaeed/status/1850705346735575537)
In American politics, blacks, minorities and women have traditionally been Democratic voters. But this time the vote base of the Democratic Party has been breached. Indian-origin Americans are also among the communities that have been breached. According to a recent survey by You-Gov for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, only 61 percent of Indian-Americans are supporting the Democratic Party in this election, whereas in 2020 this number was 68 percent. Till two decades ago, up to 90 percent of Indian-Americans were supporters of the Democratic Party. (Indian Americans at the Ballot Box: Results From the 2024 Indian American Attitudes Survey – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
The biggest reason for resentment among Muslims, especially the Muslim community of Arab origin, is the Biden administration’s unconditional support to the Israeli genocide in Gaza and Lebanon. Since this question is currently prevalent across the world, its impact has also been seen on university students and common young voters in America. These voters are seen pledging not to vote for Harris. In some states, these people have formed uncommitted (not committed to anyone) groups and in some states, these people are supporting Jill Stein of the Green Party (she is also contesting the election).
Although Trump has been a more staunch supporter of Israel, he has maintained a strategic silence in this election. They have benefited from this in two ways: Firstly, voters who are uncommitted towards the Democratic Party have not become victims of Trump phobia, secondly, many voters have gone to the extent of voting for Trump in the spirit of punishing the Democrats.
Who. Rogan is the most popular podcaster in the world (at least in the English language). In the last two elections, he supported Democratic-Socialist Bernie Sanders within the Democratic Party. This time he has publicly expressed his inclination towards Trump. Similarly, popular stand-up comedian Jimmy Dore was a lifelong Democrat, but this time he gave an interview to pro-Trump podcaster Tucker Carlson and bluntly said that the Democrats need to be punished. (https://x.com/upholdreality/status/1851057343229800873) Such changes in stance are unquestionably driven by the Biden-Harris administration’s role in the ongoing genocide in Gaza and Lebanon.
What will be the result of this? Will this become the deciding factor in this presidential election? We will get the answers to these questions on November 5 (November 6 in India). At present, the signals coming from opinion polls cannot be fully trusted. These signs are also divided. In conservative media, Trump’s upper hand is being said to be extremely heavy, while in liberal media, there is being said to be a tough competition between Trump and Harris.
Former President John F. Kennedy’s nephew Robert F. Kennedy spent his entire life in the Democratic Party. In the current election cycle, he is vying for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. But the party establishment blocked his path. Then he announced to contest as an independent. But ultimately he gave his support to Donald Trump. Some time ago, in a press conference, he had said that after the Democratic Establishment’s decision to remove Joe Biden from the field and make Harris the candidate, the liberal media, polling agencies, and social media handles created an artificial environment for Harris’s lead.
It is a fact that such change in the candidate did not change the ground situation. Because the issues before the people remain the same, which were supposed to influence their voting decision in the first place. That is why serious scholar of elections, Robert F. Agree with Kennedy.
It is true that the mood of the common voter does not change on a day-to-day level, nor are elections like T-20 cricket, in which the mood of the match changes with every ball. The process of forming voters’ opinion is a long one – partly based on their experience and partly based on the environment. Therefore, the entire narrative of candidates going back and forth every day should be considered fake.
Media has its own business compulsions. In this, he tries to keep his viewers/listeners/readers engaged by presenting even a serious process like elections like a game that changes every moment. With the changing media environment (The shards of glass election: mainstream media’s dominance dies) information culture has also become polarized. In such a situation, the compulsions to cater to our respective audience/listeners/readers have increased further. However, this time the kind of turmoil seen in the liberal media in America (WaPo, L.A. Times opt out of endorsements in 2024 election, sparking outrage), has definitely given some indication of the direction of the wind.
Despite this, instead of making any predictions about the election results, at the end of this discussion we will say that who will become the next President of America, it will be decided by whose issues ultimately attract more voters. Trump phobia takes over, or concerns about the economy, war and immigration outweigh.